What survived.
What did not.
The Costco forward brief scores the frozen thesis against Costco's own filing and the recorded Reality-token capture. Every populated number comes from the capture ledger or the cited release.
1 · Your thesis
COSTCO · Q4 FY2026
Frozen at 2026-09-24T06:30:01.749791+00:00. Hash bcd4e540fa1e2b46d883f6b63734b418cd533641be03f4eed5fc9877666ea4c6. The claim set was explicitly human-approved; the unavailable Qwen attempt did not supply claims.
| Claim | Status | Evidence rule |
|---|---|---|
| EPS above consensus | NO FAIR BENCHMARK | No pre-freeze consensus source with a matching reported-versus-adjusted EPS basis was captured. Keep the claim visible, but do not score unlike measures. |
| Membership fee growth stays strong | CONFIRMED | current value is higher than the cited prior-year value (1,850 vs 1,724) |
| Margins disappoint | CONFIRMED · ADDENDUM | Frozen rules: the issuer release supplied no grounded fact for this claim. Addendum: issuer states -11 bps Q4 FY’25 (rule ISSUER_STATED_CHANGE, added 2026-09-28 after the release). |
| Freight costs cause margin pressure | NOT ATTRIBUTED | the issuer release supplied no grounded fact for this claim |
Scored: 1 of 1 confirmed against Costco's 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (filed with the SEC at 2026-09-24T20:17:37Z). Unscored context: gross margin derived from net sales fell from 11.127% to 11.017%, but the release states no margin figure verbatim; the release does not mention freight. With the disclosed post-release addendum (ISSUER_STATED_CHANGE, added 2026-09-28): 2 of 2 confirmed, using Costco's own Exhibit 99.2 statement of the margin change. Qwen cross-check (candidate only): 4 of 5 live runs returned valid facts; 0 matched the quarter figures. It consistently cited the 52-week membership fees instead, which is why the model never scores.
2 · The market
+1.17% peak, trigger not reached
RCOSTUSDT one-minute candles, 270 of 270 slots with 0 gaps. Baseline is the close of the one-minute market candle ending at 16:00 ET (open-time keys). Peak at 2026-09-24T20:15:00Z, low −0.30% at 2026-09-24T20:47:00Z, last +0.17%.
3 · Market quality
No quoted depth
All 270 public order-book snapshots returned successfully with 0 visible levels, while RCOST traded throughout: the event traded without a visible book.
4 · Reverb's recommendation
HOLD
Deterministic reason: the largest move did not cross the 3% trigger, so Reverb held and did not act. Run status COMPLETE: All required slots captured with no gaps; Costco's own press-release feed dates the release 09/24/2026 16:15:00 ET (2026-09-24T20:15:00Z), before the 8-K acceptance at 2026-09-24T20:17:37Z. Orders: 0.
5 · Your decision
Human review only
This control records that you reviewed the brief in this browser. It never places a Costco order; the forward-run configuration explicitly allows no live orders.
One forward event, held without an order. Every required interval was captured and the issuer timestamp verified; no order was submitted.
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